Arthur Hayes: U.S.–Iran Conflict Could Push the Fed to Print More, Boosting Bitcoin

In a landscape marked by significant macroeconomic volatility, Arthur Hayes suggests that an oil shock driven by the U.S.–Iran conflict could lead the Federal Reserve to resume money printing, significantly increasing Bitcoin's value.

Key Takeaways

Arthur Hayes believes escalating U.S.–Iran tensions could lead to an oil shock.
A sustained rise in oil prices may prompt the Federal Reserve to resume money printing.
Hayes projects Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 by 2026 and reach $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of 2027.
Economic indicators such as the MOVE Index signal volatility in the bond markets, influencing Fed policies.
Current Bitcoin prices are lower than expected, despite ongoing geopolitical instability.

Hayes: Iran war, oil shock, Fed pivot could rocket Bitcoin

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posits that ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran may initiate a series of economic events that boost Bitcoin's price, potentially reaching six figures. As oil prices rise due to conflict, Hayes anticipates that bond markets will react, prompting the Fed to adopt a new monetary policy, which he believes will create favorable conditions for Bitcoin.

The Impact of the U.S.–Iran Conflict on Bitcoin

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that the ongoing U.S.–Iran confrontation is intertwined with his longstanding theory about market liquidity. If oil prices continue to surge due to risks of war, he believes it will impose pressure on bond markets. This scenario may force the Federal Reserve back into its role of supporting the markets, which, according to Hayes, would lead to a significant rally for Bitcoin (BTC).

The Oil Market and Its Implications

Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 24% over the last month due to military tensions disrupting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial as it accounts for roughly 20% of global oil supplies. This rise in oil prices is associated with increased yields on government bonds, which have reached just above 4%, along with rising inflation expectations from market participants. For Hayes, this sequence—war, energy crisis, stress in bond markets, followed by a policy response—is well-established.

Monitoring Volatility and The MOVE Index

Hayes closely monitors the MOVE Index, which tracks volatility in the bond market. He suggests that if this index exceeds 140, it would likely force the Fed into a money printing strategy to stabilize the economy. While the index is currently around 70, Hayes focuses more on its upward trajectory rather than its current level. Each small increase in volatility, he argues, tightens financial conditions and raises the risk of a policy shift from the Fed.

Bitcoin's Current Position

Despite these compelling arguments, Bitcoin has not traded as if it believes this scenario will unfold. Hayes has maintained his price forecast for Bitcoin—projecting it will reach $250,000 by 2026 and between $500,000 and $750,000 by the end of 2027. He anticipates that governments will opt for fiscal measures to appease their populations during turbulent times, utilizing central bank financing.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin is struggling at the moment. After achieving an all-time high of over $126,000 in October 2025, its price now hovers around $68,000, lagging behind traditional safe-haven assets like gold and oil, despite the prominence of Iran-related news. The chances of interest rate cuts this year have also decreased, dropping from 79% to 57%, as traders adjust to inflation risks fueled by oil prices, undermining immediate expectations for aggressive easing.

If Brent oil prices continue to rise as a result of the U.S.–Iran conflict, it could lead to a spike in 10-year bond yields, subsequently increasing the MOVE Index, which is necessary for a money printing initiative by the Fed. It's still early to draw any conclusions, but this is something to monitor closely. — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 5, 2026

Moving Forward

This situation has created a standoff in the markets. Hayes advises investors to remain patient and wait for concrete signs, such as confirmed rate cuts or clear growth in the Fed's balance sheet, before making investment decisions. Market analysts suggest that if current support levels hold, Bitcoin could see a bounce towards the $75,000 to $80,000 range. However, they caution that low liquidity and ongoing uncertainty in policy could revert Bitcoin's price back into the mid-$60,000s. In this context, Bitcoin is more closely resembling a leveraged bet on when the Fed will change its strategy, rather than serving as a stable digital gold alternative.