Bitcoin Price Outlook Changes as Bitfinex Alpha Warns of Dominating ETF Flows

Bitfinex Alpha indicates that weakening demand and macroeconomic challenges are heavily influencing Bitcoin’s price movements. The analysis suggests that the situation is primarily affected by the fluctuations in spot ETF capital flows, shifting focus from traditional factors like Bitcoin halvings.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price now heavily relies on spot ETF flows rather than halving events.
Weak demand and adverse macroeconomic conditions are pressuring the market.
Recent price increases were primarily driven by short liquidations rather than actual buying.
Current trends suggest a return to a previous support level due to insufficient momentum from genuine buyers.

Bitcoin price chart with ETF flows overlay

The Current State of Bitcoin

According to the latest market update from Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin's next significant movement will be influenced less by halvings and more by the direction of spot ETFs. The research team notes that Bitcoin's price trajectory is currently undergoing significant shifts due to weakening demand and a challenging macroeconomic environment. They highlight that capital flows from spot ETFs are now critical in determining if the market can sustain its supply absorption.

This insight comes at a time when Bitcoin is trading close to its monthly opening levels, struggling to break free from its recent price range, while US spot ETFs have experienced a series of net outflows.

In their report, Bitfinex Alpha emphasizes that Bitcoin's recent price jumps were largely the result of short liquidations rather than strong buying activity. They refer to derivatives data showing that funding flips and liquidations tended to cluster around unsuccessful attempts to exceed resistance levels. This observation aligns with analyses from March, where firms like Investing.com noted that movements within the $70,000–$72,000 range were driven by "thin liquidity pockets" and forced buybacks, rather than genuine demand.

As these squeezes dissipated, Bitcoin's price momentum faltered, moving back toward support levels. Bitfinex thus describes this situation as demonstrating "insufficient upward impulse" from real-money buyers, indicating potential challenges ahead for Bitcoin’s price recovery.