Bitcoin Price Sees Moderate Growth Fueled by Spot Trading

Adler AM notes that Bitcoin's recent price surge is primarily driven by spot trading rather than derivatives, with the derivatives pressure index reflecting a "Moderate Expansion" and showing no signs of excessive leverage yet.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's price recovery is being led by spot trading amid a resurgence of risk appetite.
The derivatives pressure index has shifted to a positive state, indicating a healthier market dynamic.
Current growth is characterized as moderate expansion, with price increases outpacing derivatives development.
Negative divergence suggests the rally is sustainable and driven by spot demand rather than excessive leverage.
Analysts warn that a reversal into positive divergence without price stability could signal excessive risk.

Bitcoin climbs in spot-led rally as derivatives stay contained

Current Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a price recovery thanks to a renewed appetite for risk in the markets. According to research from Adler AM, this resurgence is primarily due to spot trading rather than reliance on leveraged positions.

Bitcoin's Path to 2026

Following a deleveraging phase in December, the composite derivatives pressure index is back in the positive range. This suggests that the rally’s engine is spot trading, indicating a structurally healthier market dynamic.

The market is currently experiencing moderate expansion, where price increases are outpacing the growth of derivatives positions. Research shows that the composite index—rated from 0 to 5 and normalized with a 90-day Z-Score—captures overall derivatives pressure, including metrics such as open interest momentum and price movements. After hovering around zero for an extended period, the index has recently entered positive territory.

This current reading indicates moderate optimism rather than extreme euphoria since it stays well below the "overheated" zone of +1.5. The market dynamics are classified as "Expansion (Moderate)", signaling concurrent increases in both price and open interest.

Understanding Market Indicators

A positive Z-Score reaffirms a constructive sentiment in the derivatives market. Analysts point out that sustained values above +1.5 could further strengthen market signals, while a fall back into negative territory accompanied by increased liquidations would suggest market weakness.

Divergence—a metric that compares weekly changes in open interest against price changes—is currently negative, indicating that Bitcoin's price has appreciated more than open interest over the past week. This is a shift from mid-December when this metric was sharply positive amid declining prices, suggesting a move toward short accumulation.

Negative divergence typically aligns with sustainable spot-driven rallies. However, there’s a risk that a shift to positive divergence without price support could indicate excessive leverage and signify potential market instability.

Monitoring Market Trends

The composite index remains within the moderate expansion zone, confirming that spot demand is fueling recent price activity. Analysts emphasize the importance of watching for shifts in open interest trends—if derivatives aggressively pursue price increases, the risk of a short-term price correction could rise.

Currently, the moderate expansion regime indicates that both price and open interest are climbing without reaching extreme levels above the 80th percentile, reflecting a normal upward trend without signs of euphoria.

A transition to a strong expansion phase would occur once both price and open interest exceed higher thresholds, whereas a shift to distribution could happen if open interest continues to grow while prices start to decline. A critical warning sign would be positive divergence above +5% while price remains stagnant.

In conclusion, the key factor for ongoing price stability is maintaining levels above current prices with gradual rather than explosive growth in open interest. Analysts are cautious about any sudden reversals in divergence toward positive territory without adequate price support, which could point to excessive speculative positions.