Bubblemaps Refutes Claims Linking Maduro's Polymarket Bet to WLFI Co-founder

Summary:
Bubblemaps has dismissed allegations connecting a significant Polymarket bet on Nicolas Maduro’s potential removal to a co-founder of World Liberty Financial (WLFI). The blockchain analytics firm argues that the logic behind these claims does not hold up when examined closely.

Key Takeaways

Bubblemaps challenges claims linking Polymarket bets on Maduro's removal to WLFI.
A Polymarket prediction regarding the Venezuelan president's fate saw substantial financial involvement just before Maduro’s actual capture.
The firm suggests that the evidence for such connections is weak and misinterpreted.
They emphasize the importance of distinguishing credible on-chain data from sensational narratives, especially in politically charged situations.

Bubblemaps disputes WLFI tie in Maduro Polymarket trade

Background of the Controversy

The debate originated from a Polymarket prediction market question on whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted by a specified deadline. Just before news broke about Maduro's capture, multiple newly created user accounts made notable "Yes" bets, turning an initial investment of about $60,000 into over $630,000.

Particularly noteworthy was one wallet that transformed around $32,000 into nearly $400,000. Analysis of on-chain transactions indicated that this account was funded through deposits from Coinbase onto the Solana and Ethereum networks. This led to speculation that the trader had insider knowledge.

An on-chain analyst suggested the funding wallet might connect to WLFI, citing a deposit of approximately 250 SOL that resembled previous transactions allegedly linked to WLFI-related wallets and domains referencing “Steven Charles.”

Bubblemaps Discredits the Insider Claim

Bubblemaps quickly countered these claims, suggesting the methodology used to connect the wallets was flawed. To illustrate, the firm indicated that a one-day gap between deposit and withdrawal at an exchange is not significant, especially when evaluating only one asset. When incorporating additional assets like USDC and ETH, Bubblemaps identified around 20 wallets exhibiting similar timing patterns and values.

This needs to stop

Polymarket insider analysis is out of hand.

Some posts are linking Maduro’s Polymarket insider to a WLFI co-founder.

It sounds explosive, but the logic is weak 🧵 pic.twitter.com/Jnwhm6zdi7
— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) January 5, 2026

The firm pointed out that exchange deposits could arise from bank transfers, the consolidation of smaller transactions, or pre-existing balances, none of which were considered in the viral claims.

“Labeling this as a 99% match is merely clickbait,” Bubblemaps remarked, pointing out that shared deposit paths and naming similarities do not equate to wallet ownership or coordination.

Although the timing of the trades on Polymarket seems unusual, Bubblemaps emphasized that a lack of analytical rigor could lead to misleading conclusions if presented aggressively. They called on the cryptocurrency community to distinguish credible on-chain evidence from sensational claims, particularly during events tied to politics or high-profile projects.

At present, neither Polymarket nor WLFI has issued any formal statements regarding internal investigations or findings related to these claims.