Dogecoin Price Signals Early-Cycle Reset, Key Resistance at $0.20

Summary: Recent analysis indicates that Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing signs of an early-cycle reset, pointed out by improved network activity and significant whale accumulation, with a key price barrier situated at $0.20.

Key Takeaways

Dogecoin's price metrics show signs of a reset with increased active addresses and whale activity.
The crucial resistance level is currently at $0.20, with around 11.72 billion DOGE accumulated at this price.
Historical analysis suggests that Dogecoin has not reached the overbought conditions seen in previous market peaks.
Recent spikes in network activity and large holder accumulation indicate potential for price recovery.

Analysis from cryptocurrency traders indicates that Dogecoin (DOGE) is experiencing a reset in its price cycle, as valuation remains low but active addresses are on the rise, paired with new whale accumulation. The resistance level is estimated to be around $0.20, where roughly 11.72 billion DOGE have amassed.

The current price of Dogecoin has remained stable as both technical and on-chain indicators reveal a more favorable market structure compared to past bearish cycles. Trader insights emphasize that $0.20 represents the main resistance level for Dogecoin. This is where a significant amount of DOGE has been gathered.

“$0.20 is the key resistance for Dogecoin. That’s where 11.72 billion $DOGE were accumulated.” - Ali (@ali_charts)

Trader Cryptollica has shared a detailed long-term monthly chart of Dogecoin using the Mayer Multiple indicator, which compares 200- and 50-period moving averages, setting a threshold of 2.4. Currently, the reading is at 0.66005, far below the over 5 readings seen at market highs in 2017 and 2021. This data suggests that Dogecoin has not yet entered overbought territory historically linked to major market peaks.

Additionally, Cryptollica presented a chart titled “Dogecoin: Number of Days Spent at a Loss,” showing that in earlier cycle lows (around 2014-2015 and after 2021), Dogecoin spent an extended amount of time, approximately 1,200-1,500 days, at a loss. Recently, this metric has shifted towards the lower end, suggesting a potential reset phase similar to those seen before past price rallies.

Dogecoin price metrics hint at early-cycle reset, key barrier at $0.20

Positive Network Activity Signals Potential Rise to $0.20

Analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out a notable uptick in network activity, referencing data from Glassnode. "Dogecoin just saw 71,589 active addresses, marking the largest spike since September," Martinez's analysis indicated. Prior to this spike, the daily active addresses fluctuated between 45,000 and 47,500 in early November as the price edged down. However, on December 3, active addresses surged, indicating increased participation in the Dogecoin network.

"Dogecoin $DOGE just saw 71,589 active addresses. The biggest spike since September." - Ali (@ali_charts)

Martinez also highlighted patterns in whale accumulation, noting a Santiment chart displaying the balances held by addresses with between 1 million and 100 million DOGE. Over a span of 48 hours, whales have acquired 480 million DOGE. The holdings in this category decreased from approximately 35.6 billion in mid-October to below 28 billion by late November, reflecting sustained distribution. In recent days, however, these holdings rebounded to around 28.45 billion as prices improved, suggesting renewed interest from larger holders.

Another chart shared by Martinez, the “Dogecoin: Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap,” illustrates key resistance at the 20-cent price, where nearly 11.72 billion DOGE were accumulated. This heatmap identifies a significant band above this level, indicating where many coins could transition from loss to breakeven if the spot price reaches that resistance level again.

Together, the lack of extreme valuation on the Mayer Multiple, improvements in the days-at-loss metric, a spike in active addresses, sizable whale accumulation of 480 million coins, and a defined resistance zone indicate a potential for Dogecoin’s price to rise. Analysts believe whether Dogecoin can move past the $0.20 barrier will hinge on the market's ability to absorb the 11.72 billion DOGE at resistance, alongside maintaining recent gains in on-chain activity and demand from large holders.