Professor Jiang’s Bitcoin Theory: A Look at Conspiracy, War, and Empire

Professor Jiang Xueqin, a self-proclaimed "predictive historian" from Beijing, connects Bitcoin to U.S. imperialism and surveillance, suggesting it's a product of intelligence agencies. His controversial views have gained traction across platforms like YouTube and TikTok.

Key Takeaways

Professor Jiang claims Bitcoin is a tool for American imperialism and surveillance.
He argues that Bitcoin's creation is tied to U.S. intelligence agencies, rather than an individual inventor.
Jiang connects geopolitical events, particularly U.S. failures abroad, to Bitcoin's increasing adoption and perceived value.
His theories have sparked debate among academics and the cryptocurrency community, blending facts with speculative narratives.

Main Content
Jiang Xueqin, a Beijing-based educator known for his predictions about Donald Trump's political future and a potential U.S.-Iran conflict, is now interpreting Bitcoin as a key element in the narrative of American power and a sign of an emerging new world order. Through various lectures and videos that are gaining popularity on platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and X, Jiang suggests we are witnessing "the end of U.S. imperial overextension." He believes this will cause a shift in Bitcoin's role, steering it into what he calls "a structurally different regime," rather than merely entering another cycle of boom and bust. He describes his analysis as “predictive history,” which combines structural geopolitics and game theory to compare models with real-world outcomes, similar to methodologies used in artificial intelligence.

In a popular dissection of his Bitcoin theory, Jiang posits that this cryptocurrency is not the brainchild of a solitary cypherpunk but rather a project engineered by the Pentagon, intended as what he dubs "the ultimate surveillance technology." His narrative echoes a belief circulating in certain circles that “Bitcoin was created by the CIA and the Deep State.” He argues that the anonymity of Satoshi Nakamoto appears "institutionally suspicious," implying that only a well-funded and technically capable team, presumably supported by a government agency, could establish such a comprehensive global monetary network. He also points out that Bitcoin’s public ledger allows law enforcement to track illegal transactions more effectively than cash.

Jiang's crypto perspective is heavily linked to his views on geopolitics. In various interviews and lectures, he connects U.S. military setbacks in the Persian Gulf to the declining value of the dollar, the outflow of capital from U.S. Treasury bonds, and a resulting surge toward hard assets like Bitcoin. One notable macro-finance video that aligns with his theory describes Bitcoin as "the most liquidity-sensitive asset on the planet." The video claims that every dollar resulting from military conflict is a dollar that enters the global financial market looking for assets with fixed supply, with Bitcoin's cap of 21 million coins representing the endpoint of this cycle. It suggests the Bitcoin price fluctuations are not merely influenced by the halving event but are instead driven by financial responses to imperial overreach.

Traders are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as an indicator of geopolitical risk. A recent Bloomberg report highlighted that "crypto markets are once again serving as the only open window into how traders are pricing the ongoing conflict" in Iran, as market activity responds instantaneously to news of escalating tensions. Bitcoin has fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000 in March, with projections suggesting it could surge toward the $73,000–$79,000 range this month if volatility remains high. Additionally, mainstream financial analysis is increasingly contextualizing Bitcoin within the frameworks of war risk, U.S. monetary policies, and growing institutional interest via ETFs.

Jiang's popularity has been bolstered by his predictions regarding Trump's potential comeback and the subsequent U.S.-Iran conflict, propelling his views into wider circulation through crypto traders, TikTok influencers, and long-form podcasts. His YouTube channel, "Predictive History," mainly features unedited lectures aimed at high school students in Beijing, where he discusses historical cycles and shifts in global power. However, his approach has faced significant backlash. Critics, including academic experts and archaeologists, argue that he often substitutes robust evidence for sweeping narratives. A recent critique by archaeologist Flint Dibble labeled Jiang as "a wacko who spreads incredibly harmful conspiracy theories," emphasizing that "his predictions about the future frequently lack accuracy... even a broken clock is correct twice a day."

This tension characterizes Jiang's perspective on Bitcoin as well. An examination of "Professor Jiang’s Theory on Bitcoin’s Origins" acknowledges that while he mixes established facts with dubious assertions, there is no public evidence tying Bitcoin's inception to the efforts of agencies like DARPA, the Pentagon, or the CIA. Instead, Jiang integrates cryptocurrency into a broader narrative about the decline of U.S. dominance and the emergence of a multipolar global order, reshaping how many retail traders perceive Bitcoin's price movements, regardless of whether his “predictive history” ultimately stands up to scrutiny.

Professor Jiang Bitcoin conspiracy about war and surveillance