Sei Price Faces Potential Downturn as Market Prepares for $12 Million Token Unlock

Sei price chart showing market downtrend

Sei's price is currently experiencing pressure as traders prepare for a $12 million token unlock, which could impact short-term sentiment while potentially paving the way for a future rebound.

Key Takeaways

Sei is trading at $0.2243, reflecting a 0.3% decline over the last day.
The token has seen notable weekly and monthly declines of 20% and 33%, respectively.
A $12 million token unlock is scheduled for October 15, potentially increasing selling pressure.
Despite challenges, Sei’s ecosystem remains active with upcoming launches and upgrades.
Technical indicators suggest the price is at a cautious level, indicating possible fluctuations ahead.

Current Market Conditions

As traders await the impending token unlock, Sei is trading at $0.2243, down 0.3% in the last 24 hours. This price movement corresponds to a 20% decline over the past week and a 33% drop compared to the previous month, indicating increased caution among mid-cap altcoin investors.

The trading volume for Sei has dipped to $177.86 million, reflecting a 13.3% decrease from the previous day. According to CoinGlass, while the open interest for derivatives increased by 1% to $130.08 million, the trading volume fell by 11.8% to $307.06 million. This trend suggests that traders are opening new positions at a slower pace, likely opting to hedge or short the asset ahead of the token unlock rather than adding new long positions.

Upcoming Token Unlock and Market Impact

On October 15, approximately 55.56 million SEI tokens, valued at around $12.54 million, will be unlocked, representing about 1.15% of the circulating supply. Even though this percentage may seem modest, past unlock events tend to exert temporary price pressure, especially when the market sentiment is already tepid.

In anticipation of an increased supply, traders often de-risk or short the asset, leading to brief sell-offs. If these new tokens are allocated to early investors or project contributors, selling pressure might escalate in the following days before the market stabilizes.

Despite these potential headwinds, Sei's ecosystem is actively growing. The launch of Yei Finance’s governance token, CLO, on October 14 adds a positive narrative to the market momentum. Yei Finance currently represents 47% of the total value locked within the network.

Moreover, planned upgrades in Q4 that feature isolated risk pools and enhanced oracle feeds could enhance Sei’s decentralized finance capabilities, potentially boosting both protocol demand and network activity.

On the development front, Sei's upcoming Giga Upgrade, anticipated later this year, continues to draw attention from developers. This upgrade aims to achieve transaction speeds of up to 200,000 transactions per second with sub-400ms finality, promising significant advancements for trading, gaming, and RWA applications. Successful early mainnet tests or previews could rekindle bullish interest among investors.

Technical Analysis of Sei's Price

Sei's chart reveals a cautious outlook. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is positioned near $0.2904, while the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) stands at $0.2429, creating resistance above the current trading levels. The token is presently trading below all major moving averages.

Sei price risks further downside as market braces for $12M token unlock - 1 Sei daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

The relative strength index (RSI) is close to 35, suggesting that the asset is nearing oversold conditions but has not yet entered the reversal zone. Indicators such as momentum and the MACD remain in sell territory.

Bollinger Bands indicate decreased volatility, suggesting that after the token unlock, there may be a significant price movement, either a relief bounce or further decline. Key support is identified near $0.20, tested multiple times over the past week, while resistance emerges around $0.27.

A recovery toward the $0.26–$0.28 range could occur if Sei manages the unlock event without substantial losses. Conversely, if the selling pressure is too strong, the price might retest the $0.19 level before finding stability amidst ongoing weakness.