XRP Bulls Target Breakout as ETF Inflows Absorb Nearly 1% of Supply

XRP is holding strong at a crucial support level within a downward channel as exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows absorb nearly 1% of its available supply. Analysts are predicting a greater likelihood of an upward breakout in 2026.

Key Takeaways

XRP is maintaining crucial support while ETF inflows are approaching 1% of its supply.
Analysts are predicting a 60% probability of an upward breakout in 2026.
Recent trading volume spikes suggest increased participation beyond just retail investors.
Mixed signals from short-term technical indicators raise concerns about potential resistance levels.
Market participants are speculating on various outcomes for XRP's performance in 2026.

XRP holds support as ETF inflows rise

Ripple’s XRP token has been testing an important support level this week after a rally pushed its market capitalization to position it as the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency globally.

Continued Inflows into XRP

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO indicates that XRP remains within a clearly defined downward channel on its five-day chart. He describes the recent price movements as a “controlled correction” rather than a phase of distribution. EGRAG CRYPTO assigns a 60% chance of an upward breakout, should the price close above the 21-period exponential moving average and breach the upper boundary of the channel near recent resistance levels.

“Until then, it’s simply a bounce within the channel, not an actual breakout,” EGRAG CRYPTO stated. He provides a 30% probability for continued range-bound trading and a 10% chance for a decline towards recent lows.

Market commentator John Squire pointed out that the token experienced a sudden spike in global trading volume within just one minute, indicating that trading activity is not limited to small retail investors.

Recent data shows strong inflows into new spot exchange-traded funds associated with XRP, absorbing nearly 1% of the circulating supply in just over a month. These ETFs have attracted significant investments since mid-November 2025.

As of January 5, XRP was trading above previous support levels, reflecting double-digit percentage gains over the past week. This performance allowed XRP to surpass a major competitor in market capitalization earlier in January. The rise indicates a recovery effort following a decline that occurred late in 2025, resulting in modest gains throughout the month.

Short-term technical indicators are sending mixed signals. Analysis from CryptoOnchain showed that the taker buy/sell ratio on a significant exchange reached a one-month high, implying that aggressive selling pressure may have subsided. Conversely, analyst Cheds Trading identified the largest four-hour trading volume candle in a month, which could point to bearish sentiment due to a rejection at resistance levels. Others noted the presence of sell walls at nearby resistance levels, which could hinder upward movement.

Traders are considering various scenarios for 2026. An optimistic outlook suggests a bullish move toward higher levels, supported by institutional adoption and Ripple’s growth, while a pessimistic perspective points to a potential downward trend if profit-taking becomes more prevalent and overall market conditions weaken.