Bitcoin Faces Potential Drop to $70K as Bank of Japan’s Rate Hike Approaches

As analysts closely monitor macroeconomic factors, Bitcoin may experience a decline toward the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) proceeds with an anticipated interest rate increase on December 19. Observers note that this move could reduce global liquidity and exert additional downward pressure on risk assets, prompting some traders to prepare for a significant market pullback.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin could potentially fall to around $70,000 if the BOJ hikes interest rates.
Higher interest rates strengthen the yen and increase borrowing costs, which can force traders to liquidate positions.
Historical data shows that previous BOJ rate hikes have corresponded with Bitcoin declines of over 20%.
Market participants are cautious as they anticipate upcoming US economic data and central bank announcements.

Bitcoin

Impact of BOJ Policy on Global Liquidity

Analysts like AndrewBTC highlight that every BOJ interest rate increase since 2024 has been associated with Bitcoin losing more than 20% of its value. Specifically, declines of approximately 23% occurred in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.

🚨 BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC
Bank of Japan is set to hike rates by 25 basis points on December 19. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. government debt 🇯🇵
📉 Take a look at the $BTC chart:
Every BOJ rate hike → Bitcoin drops over 20%👇
• March 2024 → -23%
• July 2024 → -26%
• January 2025 → … pic.twitter.com/grN3QRNUg4
— AndrewBTC (@cryptoctlt) December 13, 2025

Traders are not only focusing on central bank schedules; they are also observing Bitcoin's daily price movements closely. A classic bear flag pattern emerged after Bitcoin saw a significant drop from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November.

Bitcoin Chart

Recently, Bitcoin traded below $90,000 in thin trading conditions, which traders perceived as a warning signal rather than a definitive market cue. Reports indicate that Ether has remained relatively stable compared to many other altcoins, indicating selective risk-taking within the market.

Bitcoin Trading Bitcoin is now trading at $89,708. Chart: TradingView

As traders prepare for a series of impactful U.S. economic data releases and central bank events, analyst EX has expressed a stark warning, indicating that Bitcoin could drop “below $70,000” if current macroeconomic conditions persist. This forecast underscores how crowded market positions can exacerbate price movements when liquidity decreases.

EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES RATES, BITCOIN DUMPS 20–25%
NEXT WEEK, THEY WILL HIKE RATES BY 75 BPS AGAIN.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, $BTC WILL DIP BELOW $70,000 ON DECEMBER 19.
BE PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. pic.twitter.com/IWU8JbXjn3
— ΞX (@rektbyEX) December 13, 2025

This connection between BOJ policies and Bitcoin price fluctuations is straightforward: as borrowing costs in Japan rise, it becomes more expensive globally to borrow, leading traders to sell riskier assets to reduce their exposure. This relationship helps explain why past BOJ rate changes have resulted in Bitcoin declines of 20% to 30%. However, markets often try to predict these events; thus, a hike that is already anticipated may have less impact than one that takes traders by surprise.

Featured image from Nikkei Asia, chart from TradingView