Bitcoin Fractal Suggests Next Cycle Bottom Around $45K

Bitcoin Fractal Suggests Next Cycle Bottom Around $45K — Here’s What to Expect

Bitcoin's price remains below the critical threshold of $90,000 during this holiday season, indicating a sluggish environment in the crypto market. Recent trends imply that Bitcoin may be entering a bear market phase, with potential declines projected in the near future, specifically targeting a value between $41,500 and $45,000 by October 2026.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin is currently struggling below $90,000 amid holiday market trends.
A potential bear market could see Bitcoin's price drop to around $41,500 to $45,000.
Predictions for the next cycle bottom suggest it will form in early October 2026.
The prediction is based on historical market patterns and the Repetition Fractal Cycle chart.
Bitcoin's potential decline could reach 50% from its current price.

Bitcoin

Current Market Context for Bitcoin

The Bitcoin market has encountered challenges, particularly during the festive season, struggling to break the psychological barrier of $90,000. In contrast to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, various asset classes experienced notable rallies. These circumstances imply that Bitcoin might be on the verge of a bear market, supported by the latest on-chain data suggesting its price could descend significantly, potentially hitting $41,500 soon.

Future Projections by Experts

A recent analysis by Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, outlines an intriguing price target for Bitcoin amidst the anticipated bear market. According to him, based on the Repetition Fractal Cycle chart, Bitcoin could reach its next cycle bottom around early October 2026. This chart illustrates how market patterns, driven by investor behavior, tend to repeat over time, enabling predictions of price highs and lows.

Bitcoin
Source: @joao_wedson on X

The chart indicates a four-year cycle consisting of distinct phases: accumulation, markup, distribution, and eventually, a bear market. Wedson estimates that the ideal window for the next accumulation phase may occur between October 6 and October 16, 2026, aligning with historical market trends. He further predicted that Bitcoin's price at the start of this accumulation phase could be between $41,500 and $45,000, suggesting a potential decline of up to 50% from current levels.

In Wedson's own words:

"This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles — something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored. Markets do not repeat exactly — but they rhyme with an uncomfortable frequency."

Should Bitcoin's price decline to around $45,000, it would indicate a fall of approximately 65% from its previous cycle peak, a stark contrast to the over 75% correction experienced during the last bear market in 2022.

Current Bitcoin Price Status

As of now, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $87,550, with no significant changes in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView