Bitcoin Price Surpasses $90,000 in Post-Holiday Surge — Caution Advised

Following the Christmas holiday, the Bitcoin price and overall cryptocurrency market did not perform as well as the broader financial markets. However, the digital asset landscape took a different turn after New Year’s, with altcoins leading the charge in a positive rally.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin recently surged above the $90,000 level after the New Year, but caution is advised.
The current Short-Term Holder Realized Price stands at $99,000, which is critical for the continuation of a bull market.
Bitcoin needs to close above $99,000 for positive market sentiment to return among investors.
Important data indicates that the price range between $99,000 and $102,000 is essential for Bitcoin's price trajectory.
Bitcoin's current price is approximately $90,110, reflecting a 2% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin price

On January 2nd, Bitcoin experienced a significant surge, briefly climbing above the important $90,000 level. Despite this uptick, recent data from on-chain analytics indicates that investors should exercise caution regarding this Bitcoin price momentum.

Bitcoin Price Must Surpass STH Average Cost at $99,000

In a post on the X platform dated January 2nd, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci emphasized that the recent increase in Bitcoin's price is not necessarily indicative of a robust market recovery. Kesmeci's assessment is drawn from the metric known as the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, currently sitting at approximately $99,000.

To clarify, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is a metric that captures the average price at which short-term investors—those who hold Bitcoin for less than 115 days—purchased their assets. As this metric represents the average cost basis for the most responsive group of investors, it often serves as a critical level of support and resistance.

Bitcoin has dipped below the STH Realized Price on four separate occasions over the past year and has remained under this crucial threshold since September 2025. Kesmeci suggests that for any conversations about a bull market to gain traction, Bitcoin needs to establish a closing price above the STH Realized Price of $99,000.

Bitcoin
Source: @burak_kesmeci on X

"No bull market without the short-term investor with a broken heart being made happy."

This quote from Kesmeci underscores the vital role of short-term investors in market dynamics. A breakthrough above the Short-Term Holder Realized Price could signal a resurgence in demand and confidence among this investor group.

Critical Data Converging Between $99,000 and $102,000

Moreover, Kesmeci highlighted that additional on-chain data further emphasizes the significance of the $99,000 price range for Bitcoin. He mentioned that a collection of key data points is aligning in the $99,000 to $102,000 bracket. Until this area is surpassed, Bitcoin's price may continue to face challenges.

Earlier on the X platform, Kesmeci noted that for a positive long-term trend to materialize, Bitcoin must close above the $101,000 mark. This explains why he ultimately concluded that the $99,000 to $102,000 zone is crucial for Bitcoin's price health.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is hovering around $90,110, reflecting a modest increase of approximately 2% over the previous 24 hours.

Bitcoin price
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView