Bitcoin: The Bottom Is Still Far Off, Analyst Predicts Trend Change Timing

A crypto market analyst has released a technical analysis explaining why Bitcoin has not yet hit its cycle's bottom. Utilizing a charting framework called Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycle Theory, the expert argues that while there is a short-term bounce currently taking place, the broader bear market is still ongoing and may see further declines before reaching a definitive floor.

Key Takeaways

A recent bounce in Bitcoin's price to over $71,000 does not indicate the end of the bear market.
The analysis indicates that Bitcoin's price structure follows historical patterns suggesting that the bottom has yet to be reached.
Price targets suggest a potential drop to around $44,500 before the final bottom of approximately $28,500 is tested.
The predicted timeline for these price movements indicates key lows may occur between late 2026 and early 2027.

Bitcoin Analysis

Understanding Why Bitcoin Has Not Reached Its Bottom Yet

Crypto expert Crypto Con recently shared insights on social media platform X, describing the recent rally of Bitcoin beyond $71,000—following an initial low of below $64,000—as a typical reaction and not a sign of a market recovery. According to the analyst, this pattern aligns precisely with expectations set by the Halving Cycle Theory in terms of both timing and price.

Crypto Con emphasized that the current price position right at the first level of the Bear Bands indicator supports his bearish outlook on Bitcoin. His detailed analysis includes price history dating back to 2011, spotlighting recurring bearish market cycles. Each cycle features a consistent three-phase structure: an initial low, a subsequent low, and finally, the cycle's bottom before a sustained recovery. Based on this pattern, Crypto Con asserts that Bitcoin has not yet hit its floor but may be approaching it soon.

A bounce after the first low of the bear market makes sense. So far, everything is right where it should be. It's the exact timeframe expected according to the Halving Cycles Theory, and price at the first low band of the Bear Bands. The next important low isn't due for at… link to tweet.

Technical Analysis: The Bear Bands Model and Price Targets

According to the Bear Bands model, Bitcoin's first low was around $64,000, which was achieved in February. The expected second low for this cycle is projected to be near $44,500, indicating that this leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization still faces considerable corrections before hitting the next key support level.

Below this threshold, Crypto Con identifies the cycle's ultimate low for Bitcoin at approximately $28,500, marking it as the final point before a genuine trend reversal can be considered. With current prices stable above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would represent a decline of over 60%, reinforcing the analyst's belief that the bear market is far from over.

Expected Timing for Bitcoin's Bottom

In addition to the price targets, the timeline provided by Crypto Con presents a cautious outlook for those investors hoping for a swift recovery. The analyst suggests that the second low (around $44,500) is not likely to manifest at least five months from the date of his analysis. This positions Bitcoin's next significant downturn between August and October 2026, as illustrated in the chart.

If this timeline holds true, the hope for a definitive bottom could be pushed well beyond mid-2026. Should the cycle's low at $28,500 materialize, Crypto Con predicts it will not happen until at least three months after the second low, placing the most probable timeframe for Bitcoin to find its true price floor between November 2026 and January 2027, just before it starts to build the groundwork for recovery.

BTC Price Support BTC consolidates support above $70,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com