Ethereum Faces Key Support: Risks of a 6% Price Dip Increase

Ethereum [ETH] has slightly dipped by less than 1% recently, but it follows a notable surge of 10% over the past week. While Ethereum has seen some gains, the overall cryptocurrency market faces pressure, maintaining a total capitalization just above $3 trillion.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum has recently decreased slightly after a 10% increase over the week.
Capital outflows from Ethereum ETFs are significant, with $1.42 billion withdrawn in November alone.
Whale activity indicates a continued trend of selling from major ETH investors.
Ethereum's price may face downward pressure if capital outflows persist, with a risk of dropping 5-6% below its current price.

Ethereum: How capital outflow risks 6% drop in ETH price

The recent price movements of ETH are indicative of the capital outflows experienced since the beginning of the fourth quarter. Historically, this quarter has been positive for crypto since 2020, with exceptions in 2022 and 2025, according to data from CoinGlass. Both Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and significant whale movements have contributed to the declining price. There has been a slight recovery noted in the last week of November. The questions remain: will the capital outflows continue to push prices lower, and by how much?

Surge in Monthly Ethereum ETF Outflows

Data from SosoValue revealed that there have been positive inflows surpassing $368 million over the last five consecutive days. This trend marks a moment of recovery for the market following earlier struggles.

However, during November, there were substantial outflows, with approximately $1.42 billion withdrawn from Ethereum ETFs, a figure that is nearly three times higher than the $403 million recorded in March.

Ethereum ETF

The last quarter of the year has proven to be challenging; however, November has been particularly tough for ETH. Previous strong inflows in July and August had driven Ethereum's price upward, but a drop in those inflows has led to recent declines.

Continued Capital Outflow from OG Whales

The trend of capital outflow isn’t limited to Ethereum ETFs; it extends to early adopters or "OG whales." One notable early ETH investor has reportedly begun cashing out after holding for around eight years, having initially purchased at about $517, according to Crypto Patel on X.

This whale has been gradually selling off their holdings, most recently unloading 18,000 ETH valued at $54.78 million, hinting at further capital exit from Ethereum.

ETH

In total, this individual has sold 87,824 ETH for about $270 million but still holds over $200 million in Ethereum. These remaining assets indicate a belief in Ethereum's potential for recovery, especially from a long-term perspective.

Is the Ethereum Price at Risk of Decline?

Looking at the hourly charts, Ethereum is sitting above a multi-day trendline support. This positive setup aligns with the recent 10% weekly gain, which saw the price rise from around $2,600 to $3,040 at the time of this report.

However, the ongoing capital outflow raises concerns about a possible drop below the ascending trendline. If this occurs, the price of ETH could correct by approximately 5% to 6%, potentially bringing it back below the $3,000 mark.

Ethereum ETH

Conversely, if ETH can maintain its position above this support level, the current upwards movement may continue to push prices higher.