Ethereum Price Analysis: Will ETH Continue to Decline in December?

As December unfolds, Ether (ETH), the native token of the Ethereum blockchain, has seen its price decrease by approximately 30% over the past three months. This decline raises concerns about how much lower ETH could fall as the year comes to a close.

Key Takeaways

ETH may drop towards the $2,500–$2,200 range if MVRV support is lost and the pennant pattern breaks down.
A potential breakout from a falling wedge could reignite bullish sentiment, with hopes for a rally to $3,550.

ETH/USDT monthly chart. Source: TradingView

Ethereum price analysis: Will ETH continue to decline in December?

Understanding Ether’s MVRV and Its Price Levels

As of Tuesday, Ether revisited the −0.5σ MVRV deviation band, currently situated around $2,820–$2,830, marking its second test of this support level within the week, according to data from Glassnode.

Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

The MVRV bands serve to compare Ethereum’s current market price with the price points where holders last traded their tokens. This is significant because it helps to indicate critical support and resistance areas. Historically, the −0.5σ band has acted as a vital support point during downtrends.

In March, when ETH broke below this band, it led to a dramatic 40% drop, with the price moving toward the realized price band, marked in purple, which served as a primary downside target.

Ethereum MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

If ETH sustains a decline below the −0.5σ support once again, attention will likely shift toward the realized price near $2,500—a level that has typically attracted prices during bearish market conditions.

A Pennant Pattern Suggests Possible Future Correction

Recently, Ether's price action has formed a bearish pennant on the daily chart, which is a triangle-shaped continuation pattern often seen following significant price drops; it typically continues in the direction of the previous trend.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A definitive breakdown from this pennant could lead to price movements toward the $2,200–$2,220 region, representing a potential 20% decline from current levels. This target coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level from the 2025 rally and aligns with a prior demand cluster established in April.

Additionally, this downside target aligns with the apex of a falling wedge pattern noted by analyst Dom.

Source: X

Falling wedges usually result in upward breakouts. Therefore, this could indicate that ETH may find a local bottom in the $2,200–$2,220 range by December.

Future Outlook for Ethereum

If ETH price manages to break above the upper trendline of the wedge, it could pave the way for a significant upward move towards $3,550 in the new year.

ETH/USDT daily price chart. Source: TradingView

This target aligns with various analyst predictions regarding Ethereum's price performance during recent downturns. Other valuation models suggest that ETH prices could exceed $4,000, classifying the cryptocurrency as “undervalued.”