Ethereum Price Dips Below $3,000: What Does the $238M Spot ETH ETF Outflow Mean for Investors?

Ethereum's price has fallen below the important threshold of $3,000, driven by increasing selling pressure in various markets. Recent outflows from spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to this downturn, raising concerns about future price movements. However, on-chain data suggests limited selling pressure in the background.

Key Takeaways

Ethereum's price dropped to $2,978, marking a 4.6% decline over 24 hours.
Spot ETH ETFs experienced significant outflows, totaling $238 million, impacting short-term market sentiment.
Despite recent drops, on-chain data indicates decreasing supply on exchanges.
Technical analysis points to $2,900 - $2,950 as a key support level, while recovery above $3,000 could improve sentiment.

Chart showing Ethereum price decline

Increase in Selling Pressure Across Markets

Ethereum's price recently fell below the $3,000 mark as selling pressure increased across both spot and derivatives markets. As of now, ETH is trading at $2,978, which reflects a 4.6% drop in the past 24 hours. Though the cryptocurrency has gained 1.7% over the last month, it has seen a 10% dip over the past week. Additionally, trading volume surged by 58% to reach $34.3 billion, indicating heightened trading activity during this decline.

Ethereum derivatives volume also escalated, rising by 65% to $74.9 billion, while open interest saw a minor decline of 2%, settling at $39.37 billion, per data from CoinGlass. This behavior typically indicates that traders are closing out positions during uncertain times, rather than adding new leverage to their trades.

Impact of ETF Outflows on Price Dynamics

Spot Ethereum ETFs have recently experienced substantial outflows. According to data from SoSoValue, U.S. spot ETH ETFs faced a net outflow of $229.95 million on January 20, ending a positive inflow streak that had lasted five days. BlackRock’s ETHA led the outflows, with $92 million pulled, followed by Fidelity’s FETH with $51 million and Bitwise’s ETHW at $31 million. Together, Grayscale’s ETHE and Mini ETH products saw about $50 million exit.

Although net monthly flows remain positive at $359 million, frequent significant daily outflows can negatively affect prices in the short term. This occurs by reducing immediate spot demand and affecting market confidence.

However, on-chain data suggests that underlying selling pressure is relatively controlled. An analysis conducted on December 21 by CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain revealed that Ethereum's exchange reserves have dropped to roughly 16.2 million ETH—the lowest level seen since 2016. The same analysis points out that Binance reserves have steadily declined, moving from around 4.17 million ETH at the beginning of 2026 to nearly 4.0 million ETH. Such long-term holding patterns can help stabilize prices in the medium to long term.

Technical Analysis of Ethereum's Price Movement

The breach below the $3,000 mark has weakened Ethereum’s price structure. This level once served as temporary support during a period of consolidation. The latest rally reached close to $3,400 before being rejected near the upper Bollinger Band, leading to a gradual decline towards the middle of the band.

Ethereum daily chart

Ethereum has now dipped below the 20-day moving average, a critical threshold that had previously mitigated pullbacks, signaling that short-term bullish momentum is waning. Following several weeks of tight trading, volatility is beginning to increase, suggesting the market could be gearing up for a more dynamic phase.

Momentum indicators support this outlook. The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen into the low 40s, suggesting that momentum is waning, though it is not yet in the oversold area. If the decline continues, the $2,900 - $2,950 range emerges as a significant support area, reflecting past demand levels as well as the lower Bollinger Band.

Reclaiming the $3,000 mark and surpassing short-term averages could strengthen the technical structure and pave the way for a move towards $3,200. Conversely, a decisive break below $2,900 could result in further declines towards the $2,750 - $2,800 range before renewed buying interest manifests.