Ethereum's Indicator Shifts to ‘Predominance’: Is an ETH Rally on the Horizon?

Ethereum appears to be poised to take the lead in the market once more, echoing trends from Q2 2025.

Key Takeaways:

Ethereum shows signs of market leadership with a key indicator turning to ‘predominance,’ suggesting a potential rally.
Staking demand for ETH has reached record levels, with 47% of the total supply now staked.
U.S. spot ETH ETFs have seen substantial inflows, but renewed tariff tensions could dampen market sentiment.
The Coinbase Premium Index indicates a risk-off approach among investors, making a short-term recovery challenging.
Overcoming the current trendline resistance is critical for ETH's future bullish potential.

Ethereum’s Indicator Shifts to 'Predominance': Is an ETH Rally on the Horizon?

According to Swissblock, a blockchain analytics company, a crucial market cycle indicator has turned to ‘predominance’ (indicated by blue), indicating a potential significant rally for ETH. They stated, “The combination of record staking levels and this shift in market leadership suggests that momentum is building strongly for the Ethereum ecosystem.”

Ethereum ETH

Source: Swissblock/X

Key Demand for Yield

It’s important to highlight that staking demand for ETH, driven by a pursuit for its 3% yield, has surged to a record 47% of the total supply (approximately 77.85 million ETH). Notably, the queue for staking entries has surpassed the exit queue, further emphasizing the strong demand for yield, particularly among institutions.

Ethereum

Source: Santiment

In recent weeks, BitMine, the leading treasury firm for ETH, has staked 1.7 million ETH (valued at $5.56 billion), accounting for over a third of its total ETH holdings. Additionally, U.S. spot ETH ETFs, which currently manage nearly 10% of the total supply, have filed applications to include staking, which could further boost demand. This staking frenzy means that there is less Ethereum available for quick sales, establishing a scenario where any favorable macro environment or market-specific news could trigger a significant rally for the altcoin, with limited profit-taking likely to impede its momentum.

Could Tariffs Disrupt ETH's Momentum?

Over the past week, U.S. spot ETH ETFs have experienced noteworthy demand. According to CoinShares, ETH and Ripple (XRP) topped the charts with inflows of $496 million and $69 million, respectively. However, market sentiment took a hit last Friday due to renewed tariff tensions against European Union member countries stemming from the U.S. stance on Greenland.

In the current week, the cryptocurrency market continues to recede from recent gains as investors adopt a risk-off approach. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures overall retail demand for ETH in the U.S., has also declined after an attempted recovery last week. Unless this index turns positive soon, a sustainable recovery for ETH may be difficult to achieve in the short term.

Ethereum

Source: CryptoQuant

From a price analysis standpoint, the aforementioned data suggests that ETH could struggle to break above the trendline unless overall market sentiment improves and tariff uncertainties are resolved.

Ethereum

Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView

Historically, the trendline support helped sustain ETH through H2 2025, but it was breached in late November when Bitcoin dropped below the $100k psychological milestone. This trendline now serves as a resistance level, and overcoming this barrier may be essential for confirming a positive trajectory for ETH bulls moving forward.

Final Thoughts