Have Crypto Investors Lost Faith in the Four-Year Cycle? Insights from an Analyst

As the year draws to a close in 2025, market participants are left pondering whether Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market will continue to face challenges or begin to recover. An analyst has shared their thoughts on the current market sentiment and its potential effects on market performance.

Key Takeaways

Concerns regarding the crypto market's performance have intensified as Bitcoin experiences a significant drop in value.
The traditional four-year crypto cycle, once seen as a reliable trend, is being questioned by some investors.
The evolution of this cycle reflects changes in market behavior, with some investors adapting their strategies in anticipation of movements.
Uncertainty surrounds the market, impacting investor confidence and their willingness to buy in during price increases.

The Four-Year Crypto Cycle: A Matter of Belief

As we near the end of 2025, worries about the performance of the cryptocurrency market are becoming more pronounced. Bitcoin, which holds the title of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has fallen by 30% since its peak in early October.

With Bitcoin now trading below its initial yearly price of $93,500, doubts have emerged regarding the validity of the four-year cycle theory. Some investors are suggesting that the theory may not apply anymore due to the recent downturn.

In response to skepticism, an analyst known as Plur, who is an observer in the market, pointed out that the four-year crypto cycle has changed over time. He stated, “There’s no magical rule of nature dictating that prices must rise and fall on a strict schedule.”

Plur described the phenomenon as a “memetic consensus,” which signifies that there is a collective understanding and agreement among participants to buy and sell at specific times. This synchronized behavior encourages others to join in, thus injecting more funds into the market.

“It’s akin to a group of loosely connected individuals all agreeing to climb this mountain at the same time every four years,” he explained in a recent post.

Another community member likened the crypto cycle to faith in a higher power: “Everyone believes in it, but no one has ever witnessed it.” Plur noted that while the initial trigger or “metronome” for this belief was the halving event, it has evolved into something broader.

Market Challenges Amid Divided Belief

The shift in the four-year crypto cycle has prompted some investors to alter their strategies in hopes of anticipating market moves for greater advantages. Consequently, many have engaged in aggressive selling throughout 2025, anticipating the cycle's conclusion.

This trend indicates a weakening of the memetic consensus, which may eventually lead to its collapse as belief wavers. Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently “climbing a wall of worry,” which has made investors hesitant about the market's future.

She expressed concerns about the four-year cycle, which suggests that 2026 may be a year of market correction. Plur shared that the crypto market is in a state of uncertainty, where some investors remain steadfast believers in the cycle, while others do not.

“The main issue here is that insufficient confidence may deter people from buying during potential climbs. Remember how certain you felt when you were purchasing in 2023? Now, the initiative feels scattered because the means of coordination has faded,” he mentioned.

He also added that while the consensus in equity markets is that indices tend to appreciate over time, prompting a “buy the dip” mentality, he had hoped that a similar mindset could emerge around Bitcoin. However, intense selling pressure has left the market in an unclear position, leading him to conclude that it may be time to step back and see if a new form of memetic consensus can develop.

crypto, TOTAL

The total crypto market capitalization is currently valued at $2.92 trillion, as shown in the weekly chart.

This insight highlights the shifting dynamics in the crypto market landscape and portrays how evolving investor sentiment and market cycles can impact future strategies.