Is an Altcoin Season on the Horizon? Key Indicators to Watch

Anticipation for an altcoin season in 2026 is growing as investors start to shift their focus beyond Bitcoin. However, key conditions required for a significant altcoin rally are not yet firmly established.

Key Takeaways

The ISM Manufacturing PMI has reached 52.6%, its highest level in nearly 40 months, indicating a potential turning point for U.S. manufacturing.
Historical altcoin rallies have occurred when the PMI exceeded 55; current figures remain below this threshold.
Ethereum has experienced negative performance in 12 out of the last 15 months, indicating a lack of momentum for an altcoin season.
The CoinGlass Altcoin Season Index is at 39, suggesting that investment is still heavily focused on Bitcoin, with little capital flowing into altcoins.

altseason

Is an Altcoin Season Within Reach?

The most recent ISM Manufacturing PMI revealed a reading of 52.6%, marking the highest level seen in almost 40 months. This spike suggests that U.S. manufacturing has returned to an expansion phase.

altcoins

Source: X

Historically, altcoin season has followed notable increases in the ISM readings. In the years 2017 and 2021, altcoin rallies emerged only after the PMI surpassed the 55 mark. Though the current levels are still shy of that threshold, they may signal a turning point on the horizon.

Additional Considerations

Ethereum (ETH) is often viewed as a precursor to altseason, but it has closed in the red for 12 of the past 15 months, reflecting a period of ongoing weakness.

Ethereum Performance

Source: X

A look at the monthly returns illustrates this downturn, showcasing inconsistent gains and frequent losses through 2024 and into early 2026. Even during short-term recoveries, the follow-through has been limited. This pattern is significant; past sustained altcoin seasons generally followed a clear upward trend in Ethereum's performance.

Signs for Altcoins Appear Weak

Altcoin Season Index

Source: CoinGlass

As of the time of writing, CoinGlass’ Altcoin Season Index registered at 39, which is below the level typically indicating a shift away from Bitcoin (BTC). Despite some increasing optimism in the broader market, substantial investment into altcoins has yet to materialize.

Bitcoin Dominance

Source: TradingView

Moreover, Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D) hovers close to 60% on the daily chart. Historically, altseason has commenced with a noticeable decline in BTC dominance, as investors begin to explore alternative assets. Currently, that transition has not occurred.

In summary, while the excitement around a potential altseason is growing, it may be premature to expect a significant rally just yet. The full picture will unfold over time.

Final Thoughts

As market conditions evolve, it’s important for investors to remain informed about key indicators that could signal the start of an altcoin season. Continued monitoring of economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Ethereum's performance, will be essential in understanding the direction of the crypto market.