Is Dogecoin's Rally Just a Temporary Surge? Analysts Share Their Insights

With a notable 28% increase over the last four days, Dogecoin (DOGE/USDT) finds itself at a pivotal point on higher timeframes. Three analysts suggest a "pullback-then-continue" scenario rather than a straightforward decline, provided a key Fibonacci level is maintained.

Key Takeaways

Dogecoin has rallied 28% recently and is at a critical decision point.
Analysts believe the price may experience a pullback before increasing further.
The key resistance level at the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement is $0.13847.
Price reactions around this level will determine if the rally continues or fades.
Current trading price for DOGE is $0.14944.

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Is Dogecoin’s Rally a Temporary Surge?

According to analyst Matt Hughes, the crucial indicator is the weekly Fibonacci retracement at the 0.382 level, currently at $0.13847. He emphasized that "DOGE regaining the 0.382 fib at $0.13847 is bullish for continuation higher." Just a few days ago, some predicted a bearish trend at this significant support area he had identified. Hughes highlighted the previous demand zone he pointed out last week, stating, "Risk/reward in the $0.11-$0.12 range for DOGE is exceptionally favorable."

Dogecoin weekly chart

The latest 4-hour chart analysis (DOGEUSDT on Binance futures) raises the question of whether this rally is merely a "dead cat bounce." After a sharp surge, the price approached previous range highs and then pulled back—characteristics that could indicate either a strong retest or a significant downturn.

Byzantine General shares a similar outlook. He anticipates a correction to the $0.14 region before the rally continues: "DOGE made an impressive move. Following the breakout of the range highs, a minor pullback seems reasonable, but overall the trend remains strong."

The same 4-hour chart indicates an uptick in derivatives positioning, with Velo’s aggregated open interest rising to $4.714 billion. Cross-exchange funding remains positive as well (Binance 0.01, Bybit 0.0099, OKX 0.0082), suggesting a market sentiment leaning towards buying, although not showing signs of excessive enthusiasm.

Dogecoin 4-hour chart

Cantonese Cat offers a more strategic perspective: the rally could succeed if it respects the market structure and performs well at resistance. He noted: "DOGE may soon hit resistance here. Let’s monitor its reaction. So far, it has been a significant retrace to the 0.382 level, which still validates this point as part of a larger four-year cup and handle formation." After approaching this resistance area, he remarked: "Right on the money with resistance. So what’s next? We have a whole month ahead. Let's see how DOGE performs from here."

Dogecoin monthly chart

Hughes' 4-hour chart provides a clear roadmap: the 0.382 level stands at $0.13847, with the next significant Fibonacci retracements above at $0.19070 (0.5) and $0.26261 (0.618). The monthly outlook reinforces that the current price range is tight between $0.11778 (0.382) and $0.15428 (0.5), with $0.20210 (0.618) above, serving as crucial milestones for any upward continuation.

This leads to questions around the "dead cat bounce." If DOGE maintains weekly acceptance above $0.13847 and retakes the nearby $0.15428 monthly level (similar to previous range highs on the 4-hour chart), the analysts suggest a consolidation phase before further upward movement. Conversely, if the price dips below $0.13847 again, it may lead to a failed recovery, drawing attention to lower support levels at $0.11778 and $0.09320.

As of the latest update, DOGE is trading at $0.14944.

Dogecoin price chart

For those interested in cryptocurrency and blockchain developments, monitoring these key levels could provide valuable insights into Dogecoin's next movements.