Is the Crypto Winter Here? Bitwise's Bearish Outlook as Bitcoin Dips Below $75K

Recent price movements in Bitcoin, particularly a drop to $72K, have prompted analysts to declare the onset of a bear market. Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, states that the “crypto winter” began in January 2025, fueled by $75 billion from ETFs and treasury firms. While predictions on the duration of this bear market vary, expectations suggest it could remain until late 2026.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's recent dip below $75K is a sign of a bear market.
Matt Hougan from Bitwise claims the downturn began in January 2025.
There are varying opinions on when this bear market will end; estimates range from mid-2026 to late 2026.
Analysts suggest the market may test $70K as a possible support level.
Adoption of regulatory measures like the CLARITY Act could help stabilize prices.

Bitcoin’s Dip and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin experienced a significant drop to $72K on February 3, leading many analysts and investment managers to accept that we are likely in a bear market. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, expressed that this "crypto winter" commenced in January 2025. He stated that the current stability, which keeps the market from falling further, is largely supported by $75 billion in demand from ETF and treasury firms. Without this, Bitcoin's value might have seen a 60% decline.

“We have been in a crypto winter since January 2025. Chances are, we’re closer to the end than the beginning. We are in a full-blown crypto winter,” Hougan explained. Generally, bear markets last around 13 months, but he doubts that the current situation will extend beyond November 2026.

Understanding Future Predictions for Bitcoin and the Market

While Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, shares Hougan's bearish sentiment, he believes the bear market actually began in November 2025 and might carry on until late 2026. He said, “The Bitcoin bear market started in November 2025, as supported by on-chain and market data. My current expectation is Q3 2026.”

Bitcoin price

Assessing the Crypto Market’s Bottom

With expectations for a market reversal projected around mid to late 2026, the question remains: how low could BTC prices go? Past cycles have shown that bear markets tend to bottom out at price levels seen during previous bull markets. For instance, a repeat of history could see Bitcoin reach around $70K, the peak from 2021.

Aurelie Barthere, a Principal Research Analyst at crypto analytics firm Nansen, agrees with this assessment. “The price trend in crypto is negative, and capitulation has just started in ETFs. I would expect BTC to test $70K support,” she noted. Additionally, Barthere mentioned that the adoption of the CLARITY Act by Congress could potentially help stabilize the prices.

However, on-chain metrics indicate that the MVRV Z-Score is trending downward, heading toward the fair-value zone that typically marks market bottoms. In simpler terms, this suggests that we may still be a way off from identifying a true market bottom. Meanwhile, Tom Lee from Fundstrat believes that the conditions are favorable for a market rebound.

Bitcoin price

Conclusion

As the market reacts to the dips in Bitcoin's value, analysts remain divided on the timelines and implications of this bear market. While some see signs of potential recovery in the future, the current trend suggests that caution may be necessary. Keeping an eye on regulatory developments and market indicators will be vital for anyone navigating the complex world of cryptocurrency.